Effectiveness of Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy
B. The Monetary Policy Curve. 1. monetary policy(MP) curve – indicates the relationship between real in- terest rate r the Fed sets and the inflation rate π. Central banks use tools such as interest rates to adjust the supply of money to keep Monetary policy is not the only tool for managing aggregate demand for because the correlation between money and prices is harder to gauge than it once was. with lower inflation because lower demand usually means lower prices. monetary policy decisions affect aggregate demand in the economy, inflation expectations and the The author is division chief of economic research at the Economics . In Iceland, the relation may be even more complex, since a large part.
Many economists argue that inflation targets are currently set too low by many monetary regimes. During the crisis, many inflation anchoring countries reached the lower bound of zero rates, resulting in inflation rates decreasing to almost zero or even deflation. However, these anchors are only valid if a central bank commits to maintaining them.
This, in turn, requires that the central bank abandons their monetary policy autonomy in the long run. Should a central bank use one of these anchors to maintain a target inflation rate, they would have to forfeit using other policies. Using these anchors may prove more complicated for certain exchange rate regimes. Freely floating or managed floating regimes, have more options to affect their inflation, because they enjoy more flexibility than a pegged currency or a country without a currency.
The latter regimes would have to implement an exchange rate target to influence their inflation, as none of the other instruments are available to them. Credibility[ edit ] The short-term effects of monetary policy can be influenced by the degree to which announcements of new policy are deemed credible. But if the policy announcement is deemed credible, inflationary expectations will drop commensurately with the announced policy intent, and inflation is likely to come down more quickly and without so much of a cost in terms of unemployment.
Thus there can be an advantage to having the central bank be independent of the political authority, to shield it from the prospect of political pressure to reverse the direction of the policy. But even with a seemingly independent central bank, a central bank whose hands are not tied to the anti-inflation policy might be deemed as not fully credible; in this case there is an advantage to be had by the central bank being in some way bound to follow through on its policy pronouncements, lending it credibility.
Contexts[ edit ] In international economics[ edit ] Optimal monetary policy in international economics is concerned with the question of how monetary policy should be conducted in interdependent open economies.
The classical view holds that international macroeconomic interdependence is only relevant if it affects domestic output gaps and inflation, and monetary policy prescriptions can abstract from openness without harm. The policy trade-offs specific to this international perspective are threefold: Second, another specificity of international optimal monetary policy is the issue of strategic interactions and competitive devaluations, which is due to cross-border spillovers in quantities and prices.
Even though the gains of international policy coordination might be small, such gains may become very relevant if balanced against incentives for international noncooperation. Even though the real exchange rate absorbs shocks in current and expected fundamentals, its adjustment does not necessarily result in a desirable allocation and may even exacerbate the misallocation of consumption and employment at both the domestic and global level.
This is because, relative to the case of complete markets, both the Phillips curve and the loss function include a welfare-relevant measure of cross-country imbalances. Consequently, this results in domestic goals, e. In developing countries[ edit ] Developing countries may have problems establishing an effective operating monetary policy. The primary difficulty is that few developing countries have deep markets in government debt.
The matter is further complicated by the difficulties in forecasting money demand and fiscal pressure to levy the inflation tax by expanding the base rapidly.
In general, the central banks in many developing countries have poor records in managing monetary policy. First, the change in money supply may not lead to a change in rate of interest. Keynes pointed out that the liquidity trap may occur at a very low interest rate and prevents the fall in rate of interest following the expansion in money supply. The liquidity trap is a situation in which the public is prepared at a given rate of interest to hold whatever money is supplied.
In this case demand for money is perfectly elastic and LM curve is a horizontal straight line, with a horizontal LM curve, the increase in money supply does not cause a shift in it and therefore does not affect the rate of interest.
Monetary policy - Wikipedia
With rate of interest remaining unaffected, the expansion in money supply, say through open market operations, will not affect the aggregate spending both consumption and investment demand.
With no change in aggregate demand on spending, the level of national output will remain unchanged. The effect of increase in money supply on aggregate output in case of horizontal LM curve is a bit complicated to show diagrammatically through IS-LM curve model. However, the ineffectiveness of monetary policy in case of the liquidity trap situation can be easily understood if we take the case of relatively flat LM curve which can be considered as proxy for completely horizontal LM curve caused by liquidity trap.
This is depicted in Fig. With the given IS curve the new equilibrium is at point B. It will be seen from the new equilibrium at point B that the interest rate falls only slightly and as a result real national income hardly increases to have any impact on the recessionary conditions.
The role of fiscal and monetary policies in the stabilisation of the economic cycle
The second factor causing ineffectiveness of monetary policy occurs in the third step of transmission mechanism, namely, changes in aggregate spending or demand in response to changes in interest rate. This happens when changes in rate of interest have insignificant effect on autonomous planned spending, especially investment expenditure. This situation occurs when business firms are so pessimistic about the future prospects of earning profits that they are reluctant to undertake any further investment in response to lower interest rate.
As a result, increase in money supply causing lower interest rates does not lead to the increase in real national income. Under these circumstances of unresponsiveness of investment to changes in interest rate the IS curve is a vertical straight line as shown in Figure The third case when monetary policy has only limited effect on investment spending and therefore on real national income occurs when banks are reluctant to increase lending for investment in response to lower interest rate.
This happened in the US in and then in andwhen global financial crisis occurred. This situation also seems to have occurred in India in following the global financial crisis. In this case when the Central Bank of the US expanded money supply leading to lower interest rate, banks were reluctant to increase lending for the fear that lending might create bad loans with little possibility of being paid back. In the US banks had made bad loans relating to real estate i.
- Effectiveness of Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy
Instead of lending for private spending and investment, banks purchased government securities such as treasury bills which are quite safe investment for banks. If due to risk aversion banks do not lend for private investment, the link in transmission mechanism that involves more private investment in response to lower interest rate breaks down to give boost to real national income.
In India too, when in the Reserve Bank of India lowered its repo rate and cash reserve ratio CRR for the banks, they were not much enthusiastic for lending to private firms for fear of default by them in repaying the loans. Therefore, to earn some return on their excess cash reserves due to easy monetary policy, some banks opted for investing in government securities beyond what was required under statutory liquidity ratio SLR. However, both in the US in and and in India in larger cuts in interest rate and expansion in money supply did bring about boost in lending for private investment and consumption for buying durable consumer goods leading to the recovery in the economies.
Under the policy of quantitative easing the Federal Reserve has been continuously buying government securities since and pumping into the American economy more money, that is, the US dollars, on a large scale keeping zero rate of interest. This unconventional monetary policy of quantitative casing ultimately seems to have worked in raising the levels of output and employment in the US and thus achieving recovery of the US economy in with rate of unemployment falling to 7. Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy: Recall that the IS curve describes equilibrium in the goods market.
The IS curve slopes downward because as the rate of interest falls investment spending increases causing rise in aggregate demand that leads to the increase in real national income i. Expansionary fiscal policy may be either in the form of increase in government expenditure or cut in taxes.
Monetary Policy: Stabilizing Prices and Output - Back to Basics: Finance & Development
In both these forms of fiscal stimulus, the IS curve shifts to the right. In our previous Fig. This increase in rate of interest causes private investment to fall that is, increase in government expenditure crowds out some private investment.
When the LM curve is more steep, that is, when interest responsiveness of demand for money is less, a given increase in government expenditure will have large crowding-out effect as shown in Fig.
Now suppose under the expansionary fiscal policy the government increases its expenditure so that there is a shift in the IS1 curve to the right to IS2. A larger income equal to Y2Y3 or KH has been wiped out due to crowding-out effect of rise in interest rate on investment. To conclude, in case of lower interest-responsiveness of demand for money expansionary fiscal policy is not very effective in bringing about a sufficient increase in real national income.
Note that contrary to Figure In this case of horizontal LM curve shown in Fig. As will be seen from Figure It may however be noted that the horizontal LM curve depicting liquidity trap in the demand for money in which case there is no crowding out effect of fiscal stimulus is an extreme case that may occur when there is severe depression in the economy.
Expansionary fiscal policy, that is, increase in government expenditure or cut in taxes has no effect on the level of real income when the LM curve is vertical, that is, interest- responsiveness of demand for money is zero.
As a result, level of national income remains unaffected. Thus, with a vertical LM curve i.